Can Zuma deliver?

Previously, I suggested that South African president Jacob Zuma's overriding priority over the next few months with regards to the Zimbabwean problem would be to contain it, not to fix it. This is because Zuma does not want the attention of the region and the world to be focused on anything other than the upcoming World Cup soccer tournament in South Africa next southern hemisphere summer.

If this assumption is true, it follows that Zuma will not be pushing hard to resolve the deadlock in the so-called inclusive government as any such move might invite the dogged resistance of those who know that Zuma's hand is virtually tied at this stage. It makes perfect sense from the South African side to postpone as much unpleasant conversation as possible until after the tournament.

Everything we have gleaned from the media over the past few months suggests that there will be no progress to write home about in these endless talks if only because all parties seem to have something to gain from protracted negotiations. Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF want to enjoy power for as long as possible. Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC are torn between those who want to resolve the outstanding issues immediately (those outside the governing elite in parliament and cabinet) and those who want to enjoy their appointments and elective offices for as long as possible.

Arthur Mutambara and his version of the MDC clearly would be rendered irrelevant by any final settlement which leads to free elections as they are likely to be buried under electoral rubble. Anyone please tell me why a member of the legislature who has just  been given a loan to buy an expensive vehicle would suddenly want his tenure to end before they have made the first twelve payments. A doze of honesty is in order here: all parties, including SADC, the African Union have no interest in bringing this matter to an end.

Paradoxically, the only people whose interests are not being served by the continuing impasse are the western powers whose position looks increasingly untenable. Their argument that Zimbabwe has not changed enough seems cyclical if it is true that western aid could cause accelerated change if the people of Zimbabwe tasted the benefits of such aid.

I think the big boys in Washington and London need to put the sticks away and offer more carrots to the Zimbabwean people and see what happens. Right now it looks like their approach to this issue is driven more by pride than by sound policy.

It may well be that a change of tactics will turn out to be a mistake, but it would be a mistake made while trying to do the right thing. In any case, it can be successfully argued that the so-called sanctions imposed on Mugabe and his henchmen have been counter-productive. But that is another topic altogether. Besides, it would not be that hard to put Mugabe back in the box should that become necessary..