The true size of the Zimbabwe security forces is probably a state secret, but we can intelligently guess based on some figures that have been released in the past. It was reported in the mid-1990s that the defence forces were to be cut to about 41 000 personnel from about 50 000. However, given the increasing reliance of Robert Mugabe's regime on the security forces for its sustenance in recent years, I am unpersuaded that there has been a 20% reduction in the numbers of those in the military. If there have been any reductions at all, they have been more than compensated for by increased recruitment into the CIO(Central Intelligence Organisation) and the so-called youth brigades. Police numbers are believed to be a little under 25 000 and should be maintained or even increased. The CIO's ranks have been boosted significantly in recent years to a figure in the region of 4000, up from about 1200 in the mid-nineties, presenting easy opportunities for budget cutters.
Even if we were to assume a figure of 40 000 in the army and the airforce, no credible argument can be made that Zimbabwe needs such a large standing defence force. While Zimbabwe may have needed a large force to serve as a deterrent in the eighties (the current numbers are partly a legacy of the apartheid era in neighbouring South Africa), she no longer has any real enemies in the region. Zimbabwe should not be preparing to fight anyone. On the contrary, Zimbabwe should be re-directing the scarce resources that she now spends on an unneeded military force towards improving social services for future generations.
Zimbabwe simply cannot afford this large security apparatus in the current economic environment. It makes sense to allow the military to trim its ranks not only by attrition but also by initiating a planned force reduction exercise in order to cut defense spending to about 5% of annual government outlays.
A fierce, lean, well-equipped fighting force of about 10 000 men and women, augmented as needed by a military service program for volunteers, would be more in keeping with the nation's resources in these challenging times.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
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