Saturday, August 29, 2009

Zuma and direct diplomacy

Given South African President Jacob Zuma's reputation for "cash talk", it has been speculated that he might be more amenable to engaging in direct diplomacy with Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF, using more sticks than carrots in helping end the impasse in the so-called inclusive government.
It remains to be seen how much of this new approach Zuma may have applied in his negotiations with Mugabe during his recent visit to Zimbabwe. However, if press reports are anything to go by, there has not been a significant departure from the "softly softly" approach taken by Zuma's predecessor, the much despised Thabo Mbeki. I suspect that Zuma quickly learned that Mugabe will not yield his political kingdom as easily as Mbeki did under the onslaught of Zuma and his supporters last year.
Far from being his own man any longer, Mugabe embodies the inertia that has crept into Zimbabwean politics in recent years. Even if Mugabe wanted to leave office today, he would not be allowed to do so by the system that put him there because ZANU-PF will collapse under the overwhelming gravity of its own decadence.
If Zuma came away with a better sense of the tremendous amount of work that still needs to be done to get things moving in the right direction in Zimbabwe, then his trip was well worth the effort and expense.
Mark my word though: Mugabe will not leave his ill-gotten power on the negotiating table. He would rather die in office and something inside me tells me that this will be the case, regardless of any new diplomatic offensive by Zuma.

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